I last commented on the Russian-Ukrainian war about eight months ago. In that article I speculated on whether or not a breakthrough of the first Ukrainian defensive line in the Donbas would lead to a Russian breakout. That could have meant a potential return to the sweeping war of maneuver that had characterized the initial weeks of the Russian invasion (or "special military operation"). Since then quite a bit has changed, not least of which is a reappraisal of Russia's methodology for fighting this war.
Just to recap, Russia opened the war in February by invading with a small force of
One month ago, I wrote of the Battle for the Donbas becoming the focal point of the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. I speculated as to Russian capabilties, intentions, and what might occur. It appears that the Ukrainian position in the Donbas is in big trouble. The question is when will that position collapse, and the answer there is as much a product of Russian decision-making as to how it conducts its war as much as it might be a result of any other factors. The following should help explain why.
The campaign in the Donbas has featured an intensive Russian pounding of deeply entrenched
