One month ago, I wrote of the Battle for the Donbas becoming the focal point of the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. I speculated as to Russian capabilties, intentions, and what might occur. It appears that the Ukrainian position in the Donbas is in big trouble. The question is when will that position collapse, and the answer there is as much a product of Russian decision-making as to how it conducts its war as much as it might be a result of any other factors. The following should help explain why.
The campaign in the Donbas has featured an intensive Russian pounding of deeply entrenched
Russian artillery fire and air attacks have intensified in the Donbas region. It appears the next phase of the war has begun. This will be the most important battle of the war.
By all accounts, the bulk of the Ukrainian army's best troops are located in the east (at least 40,000 men if not more of the most experienced, best equipped, and best led soldiers). If the Russians can encircle these forces, then most of the Ukraine east of the Dniepr will be open for the taking.
Early in 1943 the Red Army had launched a series of massive offensives across the breadth of the German Eastern Front. In particular, and as the German Sixth Army fought to its destruction at Stalingrad, multiple Soviet fronts, spearheaded by General N.F. Vatutin's Southwestern Front, surged across southern Russia. Meanwhile, Erich von Manstein, commanding the whole of the reconstituted German Army Group South, the former Army Groups A, B and Don, fell back before the Soviet advance and regrouped his armies.
Soviet General Cherniakhovsky’s 60th Army, part of Golikov’s Voronezh Front, took
