The Best Available Sources Regarding The Military Situation in The Ukraine

The footage coming out of the Ukraine is truly overwhelming. The ubiquity of smart phones and social media have enabled all of us to see things happening in real-time that previous generations couldn't imagine. However, that is not to say the information we are being presented is as consistently accurate. In fact, from the perspective of trying to understand in an operational military sense what is happening on the ground...well, let's just say that's another story.

There are alot of agendas being pushed. This creates a distorted view of the military situation in the Ukraine. Though the Ukrainians have been winning the information war, the reality is their situation is bleak. The Russians have a relatively sound operational plan (one can quibble here and there with some of their decisions - most notably a less than total usage of the imposing Russian air force) and are executing it. The only real hope for the Ukrainian's was that wouldn't have been the case.

But you might not necessarily know that if you are not discerning in your viewing and reading habits. Remembering that this war is an incredibly fluid situation, the following represents a short list of the best available sources I have come across for understanding the state of play in the Ukraine on a day-day basis (from an operational military perspective):

1. Institute for the Study of War - Their daily campaign assessments help provide a good baseline as to what is going on for someone who lacks a military background or anything more than a basic understanding of strategy, tactics, and operations. Each includes an updated map (see pictured for an example). Update 5/5/2022 - I have been kicking around whether to say something about ISW's coverage of the war for over a month now, but I can't hold back any longer: I have legitimate questions about ISW's sourcing and objectiveness in terms of battlefield analysis (meaning: there appears to be an agenda here that is at odds with the presentation of what is actually happening on the ground). As such, take them for what they are. In terms of understanding what is happening on the battlefield the two listed sources below are far superior in terms of objectivity and trying to truly analyze for their readers the state of play in the war and have been since day one (meaning my recommendation stays the same).

2. The Bazaar of War (twitter feed) - He does a great job breaking down the operational art for non-professionals while helping to explain what is happening and why.

3. Jomini of the West (twitter feed) - Performs a similar service to The Bazaar of War, but in a far more in-depth look manner. For those of you interested in the operational art and its application to the fighting in the Ukraine this is the place to start. The regular updates with detailed maps are a must read. 

There are others, but these three represent a great starting point for the person trying to figure out the big picture in the Ukraine as the situation evolves.

In addition, there has been quite a bit of loose talk about no-fly zones and the U.S. and NATO doing "more". I am not sure people truly understand the full ramifications of that. There are a number of horrific outcomes that could come from doing "more". Most people immediately default to the possibility of nuclear war (as they should).

But there is something else. For all of the obvious warts the fighting in the Ukraine has revealed about the Russian military establishment, if it proves adaptable and able to learn from its mistakes - then after this war is over something else has to be remembered. The Russian military establishment will at that point not only be the fighting force with, by far, the greatest land-based conventional military capability in Europe - it will also be a battle hardened military establishment.

For all of my pessimism about Ukrainian chances, this is not to take away from the fact that the Ukrainian army is far more capable than where it was even eight years ago (mostly thanks to western training and combat experience of its own). Yet, in spite of that, the Russian army is systematically taking it apart. If the Russians are also learning how to do exactly the same thing to their next opponent but even more efficiently then that should pump the brakes on those advocating no-fly zones. This is important.

The German army was the best army in the world in 1941, but that was questionable in 1939. The biggest difference between the German army of 1939 and the German army of 1941 was combat experience against peer competitors; coupled with its standing as a military establishment willing to learn and adapt. People sometimes forget that the four powerful panzergruppen that rolled into the Soviet Union in 1941 didn't exist in 1939. It was only after the reflection, re-organization, and intensive training following the Polish and French campaigns that the Germans reached a point where they had created the world's best operational-level groupings of men and machinery.

This needs to be remembered. Even if we were to wave a magic wand and say that a war between the U.S./NATO on one side and Russia on the other would never go nuclear - the fact remains that between the U.S. and NATO the only country with any real experience against a rough peer competitor capable of waging full spectrum air-land-sea warfare against it is the United Kingdom. One should also note that particular experience came in the brief Falklands War fought forty years ago. Moreover, the U.S. army hasn't faced a situation where it has fought anybody under less than total air supremacy since World War II ended nearly eighty years ago. Needless to say, a no-fly zone over the Ukraine and a subsequent war against a battle hardened Russian army protected by a mostly intact Russian air force would represent a very different beast indeed.